Applied Sciences
| Open Access |
DOI: Modeling the Economic Impact of Ransomware Attacks: A Predictive Analytics Framework for Business Continuity Optimization and Cyber Resilience Investment Planning
Anwar Jahid , Master of Science in Business Analytics, Trine University Detroit Education Center, Allen Park, MI 48101 Sadia Afroz , Department of Information Technology services Administration and Management, St.Francis college, NY, USA Hasib Ur Rashid , Department of Management and Information Technology in Business Analytics, St.Francis College, NY,USA MD Al-Amin Chowdhury , Department of Management and Information Technology in Business Analytics, St.Francis College, NY,USA Shuvo Ranjan Das , Department of Management and Information Technology in Healthcare Management, St.Francis College, NY, USAAbstract
The increasing rate and intensity of ransomware attacks have become an important economic risk to contemporary businesses, and to mitigate it, strong analytical frameworks are required to measure financial loss and inform strategic investment in cyber resilience. This paper builds a predictive analytics-based modeling framework to provide an approximation of the economic impact of ransomware events and optimize business continuity planning. The study uses frequency severity modeling and machine learning to estimate direct costs (e.g., payments to ransoms, data restoration, etc.) and indirect losses (e.g., time out of business, branding loss, etc.) based on aggregated industry-related datasets in the form of the industry reports, such as IBM Cost of a Data Breach, Verizon Data breach investigations Report, Sophos State of Ransomware. The study methodologically uses a hybrid methodology that combines probabilistic risk modeling and supervised learning algorithms to predict the expected loss distributions in different scenarios of threat. Simulations involving scenarios are used to determine the return on investment (ROI) of cybersecurity controls such as backup systems, employee awareness training, and zero-trust architectures. The results indicate that proactive resilience strategies in organizations can mitigate projected ransomware-related losses by up to 40%-60%, with diminishing marginal returns of the level of security investment. The research adds value to the literature by filling the gap between technical cybersecurity analytics and economic decision-making by providing a scalable model to quantify enterprise risk. In practice, it offers practical decision-makers with insights on the best resource allocation to invest in cybersecurity and boost organizational preparedness to the changing ransomware threats. The fact that the model can be applied to a range of industries also supports its applicability to policymakers and corporate leaders who may want to enhance digital resilience in a more hostile cyber environment.
Keywords
Ransomware Economics, Predictive Analytics, Cyber Resilience, Business Continuity, Cybersecurity Investment
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